Pete Hammond (Deadline Hollywood) and I agree that Natalie Portman (“Black Swan”) and Annette Bening (“The Kids Are All Right”) are the Oscar front-runners to win Best Actress, but we also take seriously a third rival: Nicole Kidman (“Rabbit Hole”). Beware: Nicole could prove to be the spoiler in this Oscar contest if she first upstages Natalie at the Golden Globes. Can’t happen, you think? Think again. Nicole is beloved by Globe voters (she’s won three times). She’s good pals with many members of the Hollywood Foreign Press Association (56 of them attended her “Rabbit Hole” press conference — that’s a HUGE turnout considering there are only 88 members). If Nicole pulls off an upset at the Globes, that could give her serious momentum heading toward the Oscars. Then what?
Tune in below to find out:
And a counter-argument/opinion from TheWrap.com:
The theory du jour: Nicole Kidman (“Rabbit Hole”) can upset both Natalie Portman (“Black Swan”) and Annette Bening (“The Kids Are All Right”) and win the Best Actress Oscar. That’s what Tom O’Neil and Pete Hammond argue, anyway. I agree that this race is a little more open than it seems (and I’d add that Jennifer Lawrence isn’t out of it, either), but I’m not ready to get in line behind Tom’s theory, which depends on Kidman first winning the Golden Globe award, and using that “serious momentum” to sweep her to Oscar gold. It’s an argument that presumes that Academy members give a damn what the Hollywood Foreign Press Association thinks, which I don’t buy at all: the two groups sometimes agree, but to try to draw some kind of casual relationship between the Globes and the Oscars is to give the former way too much credit, and the latter not nearly enough.